There’s a 50-50 chance Twitter is going to declare bankruptcy: Portfolio Manager

CSO – WELL, WE HAVE 3 MAJOR COMPANIES REPORTING THIS WEEK. AND THIS IS CONSEQUENTIAL, NOT JUST IF YOU’RE A SHAREHOLDER IN A MICROSOFT ALPHABET OR META, BUT EVEN IF YOU JUST TO HOLD THE S&P 500 AS AN INDEX BECAUSE THOSE STOCKS MAKE UP

12% OF THE S&P 500. AND OF COURSE, WE’RE GOING TO GET AMAZON AS WELL. REPORTING. OH GOSH, YOU’RE GOING LOOK AT THE CALENDAR HERE AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK. SO VERY CONSEQUENTIAL FOR THESE TECH STOCKS AS WELL AS FOR THE

INDEX AS A WHOLE AS WE’RE SITTING A TOP, THE HIGHEST LEVEL THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE S&P IN MORE THAN A YEAR WHEN WE GOT THE INITIAL READ OF THOSE SO-CALLED MAGNIFICENT 7 TESLA, THE REACTION WAS TO SELL DOWN THE STOCK. NETFLIX,

WHICH IS NOT TECHNICALLY A MAGNIFICENT 7, BUT HAS BEEN MAGNIFICENT IN ITS SHARE PERFORMANCE, ALSO PULLED BACK WHEN IT REPORTED QUARTERLY RESULTS. LET’S BRING IN DAN ROHINTON PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT I A GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT. YOU ALL 3 OF THE COMPANIES

THAT ARE SET TO REPORT THIS WEEK. ARE YOU GETTING NERVOUS ABOUT THE SETUP GOING INTO RESULTS? >> YOU KNOW, IT’S FUNNY, AMBER, THIS IS GOT TO BE ONE OF THE MOST OPTIMISTIC POSITIONING QUARTERS WE’VE SEEN IN BASICALLY THE LAST 2

AND A HALF 3 YEARS. SO POSITIONING IS VERY BULLISH. POSITIONING IS VERY OPTIMISTIC AND IT’S GOING TO TAKE A LOT TO REALLY JUMP OVER THAT, TO REALLY SEE PERFORMANCE FROM WHAT WE’VE SEEN GOING INTO THE QUARTER. AND WE SAID ABOUT

NETFLIX IS THE PERFECT CASE OF WHAT I LIKE TO CALL TRAVEL AND ARRIVE. RALLIES INTO THE QUARTER THAN IT SELLS OFF AND WE END WHERE WE WERE TO 3 WEEKS BEFORE THE STOCK EVEN WAS GOING REPORTING THE FIRST PLACE.

>> WHICH MEANS IT’S KIND OF A YOU KNOW, RUNNING AROUND TO STAY IN PLACE. YOU MIGHT GET THAT KIND OF KNEE-JERK REACTION. BUT ULTIMATELY, YOU KNOW, THE THESIS DOESN’T COME IS THAT WHAT YOU THINK COULD PLAY OUT WITH ALPHABET, MICROSOFT AND META.

>> I THINK SO, BUT I THINK YOU HAVE TO LOOK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS AND KNOW THAT SOME OF THE GAINS THAT HAVE SEEN IN A MORE LINEAR FASHION ACTUALLY SHOWED FRONT. SO I THINK SOME OF THE STOCKS HAVE THE

POTENTIAL, IF THEY REALLY CAN’T GET IT. THEY ARE TO REPRESENT A MEANINGFUL PORTION OF THE REVENUES IN THE NEXT YEAR OR I THINK WE’RE GOING BE MORE LIKELY TO MARK TIME, THEN TO REALLY SEE THE FANTASTIC RETURN TO BE SEEN SO FAR IN

THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF THE YEAR, MICROSOFT SEEMS LIKE IT’S AHEAD OF THE PACK ON THAT FRONT BECAUSE IT IT HAS UPRIGHT AS A PRODUCT. FIRST OF ALL. >> AND IT HAS A PRICING STRATEGY, WHICH IS MORE THAN

WE CAN SAY FOR SOME OF THE OTHERS THAT ARE SET TO REPORT. DO YOU THINK THAT MEANS THAT THEY’RE THE BEST POSITION TO DELIVER, YOU KNOW, CONCRETE NUMBERS AND FORECAST ON THE BACK OF A I. >> I THINK THEY’RE THE MIDDLE

OF THE PACK, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, BECAUSE WE HAVE TO REMEMBER ABOUT MICROSOFT AND THE EXPECTATIONS SO FAR IS WHAT WE’VE SEEN IN THE DAY IN OUR RESEARCH KIND OF THE MARKETS EXPECTING 30 40 50 BILLION DOLLARS AI AND COPILOT AROUND IT, WHICH IS

WHAT YOU’RE ALLUDING TO THERE, THAT $30 A MONTH ADD-ON TO MICROSOFT’S. I MEAN PRODUCTS THOSE ARE FANTASTICALLY LARGE NUMBERS TO ME IN A YEAR OR 2 SAND. WE’RE TALKING 100 MILLION, 200 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS TO GET TO THAT LEVEL. SO I THINK MICROSOFT

MIDDLE OF THE PACK IN TERMS OF EXPECTATIONS, BUT IT JUST GOES TO SHOW JUST THE LEAVES INBOUND YOU HAVE TO ACHIEVE TO MEET EXPECTATIONS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT TODAY. ALSO MICROSOFT’S AN ALL-TIME HIGH OUT OF THAT IS 20% OFF.

>> OF ITS ALL TIME HIGH. A RELATIVE BASIS. DOES THAT MAKE IT AN ATTRACTIVE THEM STOCK AND MAYBE EVEN FOR AN AI PLAY, WHICH IS SO FAR BEEN DISAPPOINTING. >> IT’S THE DISCOUNT PLAY FAKE FOR NO GREAT REASON BECAUSE THEY HAVE FANTASTIC

TECHNOLOGIES. THEY HAVE CLOUD COMPUTING THE SAME AS MICROSOFT WILL THEY LIVE IS THE SHINE. THIS THAT MICROSOFT DONE SO WELL, BUT ALSO THE ENTERPRISE CUSTOMERS. SO HOW ABOUT IT’S GOT TO ONE AT A TIME OR SHALL WE SAY CORPORATES AT A TIME VERSUS

MICROSOFT, WHICH BASICALLY MAKES IT AVAILABLE TO ITS HALF-BILLION USERS AROUND THE WORLD. AND THEY INSTANTLY SIGN UP FOR IT. SO I DO THINK CONFIDENCE AND DISCOUNT PLAY, BUT EVEN HOW TO EXPECTATIONS HAVE BEEN COMING UP. >> IT IS INTERESTING BECAUSE I

MEAN, IT WAS SUCH A QUICK PIVOT FROM WE’RE GOING TO SPEND, SPEND, SPEND 2, WE’RE NOT GOING TO SPEND. AND SINCE THAT DECISION WAS MADE KIND OF NOVEMBER. 2020 STUDIES 230%. IT’S ALMOST LIKE A STRAIGHT LINE UP REALLY ON SOME SOME INCREMENTAL PENETRATION, I

WOULD SAY ON INSTAGRAM, BUT YOU KNOW, WHAT DOES THIS COMPANY NEED TO DEMONSTRATE TO KIND OF SUSTAIN THIS MOMENTUM OR AT LEAST NOT LET IT COME OUT. >> I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU ALLUDED TO IT IS WHAT HE CALLS A YEAR OF

AUSTERITY ARE OF THE YEAR DISCIPLINE CONTINUES AND IT WASN’T JUST DEATH THAT STATE OF MIND FOR HIM AND THAT AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE DISCIPLINED ON COSTS AND THAT’S GOING TO KEEP HARDER AS A EYES. VERY COMPUTE AND COST INTENSIVE BEFORE THE REVENUES

DO SHOW UP. SO THAT’S THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT THE MARKET’S GOING TO LOOK IN ADDITION, ANY ALSO ALLUDED TO INSTAGRAM TIKTOK AND A BIG IN THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF HAS NOW FADED AWAY IN PLATEAU ITS ENGAGEMENT AND INSTAGRAMS

MANAGED TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM. SO HOW ENGAGEMENT DOES AND HOW A MARK ZUCKERBERG’S A YEAR DISCIPLINE DOES IS REALLY THE SET UP INTO THE QUARTER. BUT I’D SAY ABOUT THE 3 THAT WE, WE’VE TALKED ABOUT THE EXPECTATIONS ARE BY FAR THE HIGHEST FROM ETA.

>> DO YOU THINK LIKE AS AN INVESTOR, YOU THINKING ABOUT THREADS, THE RIVAL TO TWITTER. >> IT’S A NICE COMPLIMENT, YOU KNOW, THE TWITTER AT ITS PEAK WAS MAYBE 40 BILLION DOLLARS THAT MUST TOOK IT OUT IT’S GOING PROBABLY DECLARE

BANKRUPTCY. THERE’S A 50 50 SHOT IN MY MIND ABOUT THE TWITTER BAKER. SEE COMING UP IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. SO THREATS IS GREAT PRESENCE INCREMENTAL. BUT THE REAL CROWN JEWEL IS FACEBOOK AND INSTAGRAM AND SUBSIDIARY OF PEACE LIKE FACEBOOK, MESSENGER

AND WHATSAPP. SO DRESS A NICE COMPLEMENT FOR ABOUT IT FOR SUCH A BIG COMPANY LIKE IT’S JUST ICING ON THE WE’RE GOING GO BACK TO THAT BECAUSE YOU DELIVER THAT LINE VERY CASUALLY. >> THAT TWITTER IS GOING TO

BUT HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 50% CHANCE OF GOING BANKRUPT. THAT’S A 44 BILLION DOLLAR BUYOUT. MOST OF THAT. >> WITH A LOT OF IT, I SHOULD SAY WITH DEBT. >> I MEAN TO CAUSE ANY SENSATIONAL POINTS THERE. BUT WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT JUST

ADVERTISING REVENUE, YOU HOME ICE SAID IS DOWN 50% SINCE HE TOOK OVER AND THEY’RE NOT CASH FLOW POSITIVE. ONE OF THE DYNAMICS ACTUALLY SAW THIS WEEKEND WAS THE RE-BRANDING OF TWITTER SO THE POTENTIAL OF THAT THAT MIGHT SOUND LIKE

ELON MUSK AT CLOCK MOVE, BUT IT COULD BE IF YOU WANT TO TAKE A THE CALL IT A LEGALISTIC VIEW ON IT COULD BE HE’S BASICALLY TRYING TO HIVE OFF THE TWITTER BRAND, RUN THE REST OF THE BUSINESS INTO BANKRUPTCY AND EMERGENT. AND

SO IT PART NATIONAL COURT TWITTER AND REBRANDED BACK. SO I DIDN’T MEAN GO TO SENSATIONAL WITH WHEN YOU’RE RUNNING CASUAL NEGATIVE, YOU HAVE A HIGH BURDEN AND YOU’RE BLEEDING SUBSCRIBERS TO AMANDA ON RIGHT SIDE. YOU START HAVING TO GET MORE CREATIVE IN

TERMS OF HOW YOU THINK ABOUT OTHER SIDE OF CHAPTER 11. SO I SEE THIS AS POTENTIALLY, NOTHING IMPROVES, I THINK IT’S INEVITABLE. >> I MEAN, TOO LATE, IT’S ALREADY A SENSATIONAL HAD YOU’RE TALKING TO A JOURNALIST, GOT TO TAKE THAT

AND RUN WITH IS NOT GOING TO GAME CHANGING FOR MED HAS THAT GOING TO BE JUST MORE INCREMENTALLY POSITIVE. >> IT’S AN INCREMENTAL POSITIVE, IT’S NOT TOO MUCH MORE THAN THAT MEANT AS TOO BIG OF A REVENUE BASE. AND SO TOO MUCH DIVERSIFICATION FOR

EVEN DRUGS IF IT’S A STANDOUT SUCCESS STORY, IT WILL BE MAYBE A SMALL CARS AND TO ANSWER IMPROPER. SO IT’S REALLY MARGINAL TO BUT IT’S VERY MATERIAL TO, TO TWITTER AND COMMUNITY THAT SPELL FOR. >> OKAY, I DO HAVE TO LET YOU

GO. BUT I WANT TALK ABOUT WE TALKED A LOT ABOUT TACK JUST WHERE IS TECH RANKING RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF YOUR ALLOCATION, ARE YOU STILL OVERWEIGHT OR THE OTHER SECTORS GETTING MORE INTERESTING BECAUSE WE’VE SEEN THIS ROTATION IN THE LAST

MONTH, AWAY FROM TECH AND INTO OTHER SECTORS. >> IT WASN’T OVER A FOREST. WE BROUGHT DOWN TO A NEUTRAL AND ON OUR WAY TO UNDERWAY. AND IT’S NOT BECAUSE OF THE FUNDAMENTALS. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE ROBUST AND STRONG. IT’S JUST A MOUNTAIN OF

EXPECTATIONS IS SO THAT YOU NEED TO HAVE A RECORD-SETTING 2ND HALF AND ONE OF THE BEST YEARS FOR THE NASDAQ EVER TO TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOMENTUM. WE FADED AND THAT

Dan Rohinton, portfolio manager at iA Global Asset Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss tech earnings. He says Twitter, rebranded as X, is running cash flow negative, and in his mind there is a chance that could lead to bankruptcy.

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0 Reviews

23 thoughts on “There’s a 50-50 chance Twitter is going to declare bankruptcy: Portfolio Manager”
  1. It was cashflow negative since inception. What would be scary is if they exit. It's the only remotely popular platform that isn't militant about speech.

  2. Musks masturbatory obsession with "X" anything is a bit weird. Kinda 12yo edgy angst teen levels tbh. His username places will have "xX" suffix and prefixes. "xAI", "TeslaX", his kids name X Ae Sigma 12 or whatever it was. His failed attempt to rebrand Paypal as X. It's this itch he has to scratch.

  3. Ive never seen a billionaire so amazing at destroying billions. X is the dumbest name ever to exist! Zuckerberg wins, money doesnt make you the winner. Zuck at least makes stable and sound buisness decisions, and I wonder if twitter will be bought back at discount?

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